Well, we’re all aflutter over the hiring of Terry Francona and what it might mean for the Cincinnati Reds. Francona is generally regarded as an excellent manager, and I won’t be surprised if the team overperforms for him a bit, as the Reds always seemed to under Dusty Baker. But, I also continue to believe that the manager is a relatively small piece of the puzzle.
The season has ended (for the Reds) and we’re all thinking about next year now. I always find it helpful to try to look at the roster like I would if I were looking at a team I don’t really care about and don’t follow closely. When I do that, I see a team with good pitching and awful hitting. I mean, no one ever has enough pitching but the Reds were well above league average last year on the mound and well below it with the bat. If they’d hit like they did in 2023 (which was still not great), they might have been in the playoffs.
So how do they get enough offense to compete and what, if anything needs to be done with the pitching. Here are my opinions which, obviously, are the correct opinions to have. I don’t really think Cincinnati’s front office will do this stuff. But I think they should.
The Lineup
The following players have guaranteed lineup spots (in order of how secure those spots are):
Shortstop: Elly De La Cruz. He had 6.4 fWAR this year. Here’s a complete list of seasons by Reds shortstops that were better than that: Barry Larkin, 1996, 6.8 WAR. That’s it. That’s the entire list. Doing it at an age when most of the shortstops you want to compare him to were in the minors is stunning. I might do a longer write up on just Elly De La Cruz, but let’s just say precedent indicates that he is going to be good for a long time if he’s healthy.
Catcher: Tyler Stephenson. He had some injury recovery issues and got moved around a bit last year. This year, he just got to be a catcher. The defense and offense both rebounded and he ended up with numbers that are borderline all-star level for a catcher. He’s not going anywhere.
Second Base: Matt McLain. Yeah, he missed the whole season. Yeah, two years of getting hurt means you need a backup plan. But he continues to be very well regarded and the results have been there on the field.
Utility: Jonathan India. India had a good rebound year, but his track record is uneven. Still, with a pretty weak lineup overall, he’s someone you find a spot for.
Center field: TJ Friedl. I’m giving him an injury pass this year for two reasons: 1. He was awfully good in 2023. 2. Outfield depth around the league is terrible. Seriously, as I was researching this piece it became clear that it’s not just the Reds who need outfielders. EVERYONE needs outfielders. It’s wild how different positions ebb and flow. In a few years, it’ll probably be “Wow, how are there so many great outfielders around now?”
That’s it for me for guaranteed spots. Yes, really. Yes, I know who I’m leaving off. I’ll get to those guys later.
What the Reds don’t need to do is roll the dice with the same bunch of question marks and hope the bottom half of the lineup isn’t just a bunch of automatic outs, like it often was in 2024.
Time to spend money.
Time to sign Pete Alonso and Anthony Santander.
Neither of them are world-beaters. Frankly, there aren’t any world-beaters out there besides Juan Soto, and that ain’t happenin’. (I don’t think this is really happening either, but the Reds should be able to afford both of these guys. I’ll believe the “revenue neutral” stuff when they open the books to the public. Until then, it’s hot air.) Anyway, these guys are both proven major leaguers with a track record that say their floor is average and their ceiling is all-star, and that is what you need. They also play the positions where Cincinnati was weakest last year: First base and outfield.
And if the Diamondbacks, for some reason, don’t pick up the option on Eugenio Suarez, I’d snap him up in a second. Boy, did the Reds sell low on him. Go look at his numbers since he left. They ain’t bad.
Maybe you have a favorite candidate you want them to make a trade for. If so, that’s cool, tell me about them and why. But they better hit. The Reds need two new bats in the lineup because people get hurt.
In an ideal world, I’d like to assume everyone is healthy. I’d like to assume Spencer Steer and Jake Fraley and Christian Encarnacion-Strand return to the previous versions of themselves. But I cannot assume that. Why? Because a 2024 team that was supposed to be very deep had seven position players TOTAL who got more than 100 plate appearances and posted an above-replacement fWAR. That’s terrible.
Guys will get hurt. Sign two bats and now you have the following players competing for the last two spots in the lineup:
Spencer Steer, Jeimer Candeleario, Christian Encarncion-Strand, Jake Fraley, Noelvi Marte, and Ty France (if you keep him).
The upper minors are thin right now for the Reds. Blake Dunn and Rece Hinds are not it. If they were, they’d hit Triple-A pitching better. When two or three guys get hurt, you want a situation where Fraley or Steer is getting more starts. Not Stuart Fairchild or Rece Hinds. You want Encarnacion-Strand or France or Candelario sliding into the infield if someone gets banged up. You don’t want Marte left out to dry because there is literally no one else. Santiago Espinal should never play everyday, either (and I swear to everything holy if one of you talks about the 100 plate appearances where he was good, I will personally escort you to sample size jail where you will be forced to watch Ryan Lavarnway highlights for eternity).
Teams had, on average four players qualify for the batting title this year. FOUR. (There were 129 qualifiers across all MLB.) Guys will get hurt. Guys will stink. Who do you have to fill in decides who goes the playoffs and who doesn’t. Your top subs can be a tick below average (that’s why they’re subs). Projected starters cannot.
If my dreams come true, Cincinnati would field an Opening Day lineup that looks something like this:
- TJ Friedl, CF
- Elly De La Cruz, SS
- Matt McLain, 2B
- Pete Alonso, 1B
- Anthony Santander, RF
- Tyler Stephenson, C
- Jonathan India LF or DH
- Spencer Steer DH or LF or even 3B
- Fraley or Candelario or Marte or Encarnacion-Strand
Perhaps the last two spots in the order project to be below average overall, but that’s all. And those last spots don’t project to be WAY below average (maybe 1.5 WAR each would be my guess, with reasonably high ceilings).
The Rotation
Pitching wasn’t the problem this year. FanGraphs thinks the Reds had the 7th best staff in MLB. So, overall, this calls for less of a makeover than the lineup. I’m inclined to only pay attention to starters because relievers aren’t reliable and we really never know what they’ll do in the long run. So let’s try to get to 162 starts.
Here are the starters the Reds will definitely have in the organization next year and how many games they started this year (I’m not including Brandon Williamson for obvious reasons):
- Hunter Greene – 26
- Andrew Abbott – 25
- Nick Lodolo – 21
- Graham Ashcraft – 15
- Rhett Lowder – 6
That’s 93 starts from guys who weren’t “break glass in case of emergency” types (I guess Lowder was, but we all saw how he did, he’ll get a shot). What about next year?
Greene and Abbott should continue to build endurance, but they’re also pitchers, so one of them (at least) will probably miss time. Let’s pencil them in for 55 starts together.
I think 20 feels like it for Lodolo until he shows otherwise.
Lowder does have a sample size issue, so I’m not comfortable relying on him for a full season. Let’s say he gets 15 to see if he can stick.
Ashcraft is a big question mark, and I’m not really comfortable relying on him for more than 10 starts until we have an update on the injury. But it also feels like he’s either gonna be good for zero or 25.
That gives the Reds 100 starts. They need at least three more options. (Teams, in general, have to give substantial starts to around 8 pitchers every year).
If Nick Martinez stuck around, that would be big. I don’t know how likely that is, either. He pitched well, but he’s also on the wrong end of the aging curve. I don’t know what teams would give him.
The Reds are, seemingly, interested in Sonny Gray as reports are out that the Cardinals are selling this offseason.
Frankie Montas has openly stated that he wants tot come back to the Reds.
Then there’s Chase Burns and Chase Petty in the minor leagues who are wildcards for very different reasons.
And then there’s… not much else. Scrap heap guys will be around, but that’s about it. Unless the Reds are really breaking the bank OR the Cardinals are eating a lot of the contract, I’d take Montas over Gray because he’ll eat innings, be a good clubhouse guy, and leave money on the table to spend on bats, which they need more. Obviously, Gray figures to be the better pitcher, but a this point, there isn’t a ton of daylight between the two of them.
Or, think of it this way: Would you rather have Santander and Montas with Fraley on the bench or Fraley and Gray with Benson on the bench? Of course, I’d love to have everyone.
Conclusion
As is always the case, the question of whether or not the Reds are good next year comes down to whether or not they’re willing to plug holes. There is a very, very good core here, but when someone goes down, the player you have to put in for them can’t be a disaster. Talent isn’t just about having all-stars on the team. It’s about having a 1.5 WAR guy to sub in when your all-star goes down instead of a -1.5 WAR guy. According to Fangraphs, the players on the team who were below replacement were worth -7.3 WAR. That’s a big hole to dig for yourself, and one they can’t afford to have happen again.
