One struggle ends, another begins. Revolution begets counter-revolution. Hopes soar, disappointment and disillusion follow. Is this what the future holds for Syria? In the immediate aftermath of last weekend’s sudden toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s despicable regime, euphoria reigns. After 13 years of civil war, and more than 50 years of oppressive dictatorship, the scent of freedom is intoxicating. The people of Syria celebrated their liberation on the streets in vast numbers. Statues of Assad and his father, Hafez, lifeless monuments to fear, were pulled down and smashed. Who would deny them these moments of vital joy? Theirs is a victory for all who love freedom.
Elation conceals deep anxiety. The challenges facing the country are numerous, complex and daunting. For many citizens, the overriding priority is to discover what happened to missing relatives and friends jailed or “forcibly disappeared”. Large crowds gathered outside Damascus’s notorious Sednaya prison and other “slaughterhouses”, desperately seeking news of loved ones, living and dead. Perhaps half a million people were killed in the war. The Syrian Network for Human Rights believes that 100,000 may have died under torture. One was Mazen al-Hamada who famously, publicly, defied the regime. His broken body was found in Sednaya.
Powerful yearnings for instant revenge will be difficult to contain. They reflect a broader desire for a national reckoning, for justice and accountability. Assad, cowering in Moscow, must be surrendered by Russia. Evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity, including documented chemical weapons attacks, has been compiled since 2011 by the UN’s commission of inquiry on Syria and other bodies. Assad should be prosecuted without delay, preferably by the international criminal court. The same holds true for senior regime officials; about 4,000 perpetrators have been identified. Syria’s future cohesion depends in large part on bringing all the guilty to justice, without exceptions.
Political instability is a pressing concern. So far, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the formerly al-Qaida-linked Islamist militia that led the charge against Assad, has belied its extremist roots with moderately reassuring words. These include pledges by its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa – better known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani – to honour Syria’s multi-faith tradition, respect minority rights, replace the vile security apparatus and allow UN inspections of suspected chemical weapons sites. A transitional government is expected to rule for three months. After that, it is hoped, Syria will move towards a democratic system underpinned by elections. Obviously, much can go wrong. Criticism is already heard that the new Islamist-dominated administration lacks diversity.
The security situation presents enormous headaches. Although the battle against Assad is won, another is raging in the north between US-backed Kurdish forces and the Syrian National Army, a motley collection of militias sponsored by Turkey. Tens of thousands of people are newly displaced. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is trying to expand a buffer zone to defend against what he, almost alone, characterises as the Kurdish “terrorist” threat. Israel’s leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, is attempting something similar along the Syria-Lebanon-Israel border. Israel is continuing daily air attacks and has illegally occupied Syrian territory. Netanyahu says this is to deter HTS, which remains proscribed by the US and UK as a terrorist organisation. Meanwhile, numerous heavily armed groups with uncertain loyalties and old scores to settle roam the ungoverned east and south.
A possible revival of Islamic State terrorism is another big worry. Thousands of jihadists have been detained in desert camps secured by Kurdish forces, which are under pressure from Turkey’s proxies. A mass escape could be disastrous. Russia and Iran, Assad’s main backers, are meanwhile scrambling to rescue something from a humbling strategic defeat. Moscow is trying to cut a deal to retain naval and airbases on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. Iran’s regime faces worsening domestic woes, which may render it all the more dangerous. Its militias will continue to exploit Syrian weakness.
Syria’s new rulers must also tackle myriad social and economic problems, not least the expected return of millions of exiled refugees. About 12 million Syrians, half the prewar population, are displaced. The humanitarian challenges are huge. The World Food Programme says that even before Assad fell more than 3 million people faced acute food shortages. Syria’s economy, like many of its towns and cities, is in ruins. The Syrian pound depreciated by 141% against the US dollar last year, hyper-inflation is rampant and at least 70% of the population lives in poverty.
Assad’s fall caught the world by surprise. Now Syria’s future hangs in the balance. What should the international community do? Western countries are rightly emphasising a democratic transition, inclusiveness and respect for human and civil rights. Whether al-Sharaa will meet their expectations, or even wants to, is unknowable. Early engagement will be crucial. The Arab League, Turkey, the US and other G7 countries are holding emergency talks in Jordan on how best to approach this new reality.
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The most useful thing Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, can do at this point, and likewise Britain and the EU, is to extend a wary hand of friendship to the new rulers of Damascus – and tell Israel and Turkey to cease their destabilising, predatory behaviour. But the west must not attempt to dictate events. At this pivotal moment of maximum risk and abiding distrust, international assistance should be led and coordinated by the UN. This victory must not be lost. This chance for real change must not be squandered. After years of failure, the world owes Syria. It’s time to begin repaying that debt.
