How Raila-Ruto deal revealed his political magic

Despite losing yet another bid to lead the country in 2022, ODM leader Raila Odinga remains at the heart of the country’s politics, playing central roles in policy-changing decisions such as the formation of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) and the recent impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

The opposition leader has always found a way to bounce back and influence governance and policy since losing his first election to President Daniel arap Moi in 1997, where he emerged third in a contest a united opposition could have easily won.

He has wielded control over local politics through secret deals aimed at stabilising fragile governments, such as in 1997 when Moi won with just over 30 per cent of the vote, and again in June and July 2024, during the Gen Z uprising that nearly toppled the Kenya Kwanza administration.

As was the case this year with the Ruto administration, after the 1997 elections, it did not take long for word to spread that talks were underway between Raila’s National Development Party and Kanu. Raila’s fellow second liberation heroes — Kijana Wamalwa, Paul Muite, Gitobu Imanyara, James Orengo, and others — found the very idea unthinkable.

While they were preoccupied with crafting a united opposition front to oust Kanu from power in the 2002 election, Raila was finalising a deal with Kanu that would eventually secure him a ministerial position in the Moi administration as Energy Minister in 2001.

Other tactics in Raila’s survival armour include leveraging the numbers he commands to incite mass discontent and organise demonstrations against sitting governments. This was evident in 2008, when he formed the grand coalition government with President Mwai Kibaki, and again in 2018, during the handshake with President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Political genius

While analyzing the Azimio coalition protests, political analyst Martin Andati told The Sunday Standard that through street protests, Raila continued to resonate strongly with Kenyans grappling with economic hardships and rising living costs.

“He pushes them into a corner, making those in power vulnerable because, when businesses are disrupted, the government cannot collect enough revenue. He understands that when people are on the streets, it becomes difficult for the country to generate wealth,” said Andati.

Andati, who knows Raila well from their time working together in the ODM party, describes him as a political genius. He asserts that Raila understands and commands his own constituency so effectively that it is nearly impossible to marginalize or render him politically inconsequential.

“He has been the biggest competitor in presidential elections, losing narrowly by the slightest of margins, and that tells you the kind of politician he is,” said Andati.

Nairobi politician Philip Kisia also believes Raila won the 2007 and 2017 elections against Kibaki and Uhuru respectively, but that both victories were stolen from him, leading to chaos in the country.

READ: Ruto and Raila: Great friends who became bitter political enemies

Raila therefore remains a political force that cannot be dismissed, as evidenced by the 2022 election results, in which he secured nearly 50% of the total votes cast in the hotly contested poll.

Although Raila styles himself as a social democrat, his political manoeuvres have sometimes appeared to be driven by convenience and opportunistic tendencies, which are part of Kenya’s political games.

For example, young people continue to accuse him of having taken advantage of their fight against President Ruto’s government earlier this year to bargain for positions in the so-called broad-based government.

However, he has dismissed these claims, arguing that he acted in good faith to save the country from the anarchy that could have resulted had President Ruto’s government collapsed under the enormous pressure it was facing.

Patriotic love

National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohamed, one of Raila’s close allies, told the media after the formation of the broad-based government that it was driven by Raila’s patriotic love for Kenya and his long-standing commitment to stepping in to save the country during times of crisis.

Junet described Raila as a patriot who sacrifices his political ambitions for the country’s future and political stability: “Over the years, despite being rigged out in elections, he has stepped in to save the country from sinking into the abyss.”

The sacrifice, according to the former Prime Minister, is what he refers to as “handshakes”. He told mourners at President Moi’s burial ceremony in 2020 that his first handshake was when he agreed to fold his NDP party and join the former president’s New Kanu party in 2001.

Raila’s ability to form coalitions or partnerships with other political players is another strength he has leveraged on to navigate difficult political waters, a skill that has enabled him to survive when others have struggled.

“Hate him or love him, Raila is a man who understands the dynamics of the day. Strategy is the ability to scan the environment and develop appropriate options to operate within that space. He knows the huge following he enjoys and, therefore, understands that he is a force that cannot be ignored,” says Kisia.

It is argued that Raila knows when opponents are at a breaking point, as that is when he can bargain on his own terms and most of his demands are met by those in power.

ALSO READ: Broad-based government litmus test for Ruto and Raila

“He came in when Ruto was at his weakest point, and remember, he didn’t seek him either. He knew all his demands would be met because the president had been badly exposed and was very vulnerable,” added Kisia.

Other strong attributes that give Raila an edge include his use of political power, influence, and money — three resources that astute political players wield to remain relevant.

Selfless reformist

Andati told The Sunday Standard that President Ruto had to quickly look for Raila because other presidents before him had done the same to survive when they were facing a deficit of trust and credibility from the public.

“Raila has positioned himself as a man who wants a united country that is not divided by ethnic interests and also as a selfless reformist. The deal with President Ruto can, however, easily destroy his legacy because of the backlash from very angry young people,” said Andati.

The deal was also a give-and-take because both parties benefited through sharing government positions, in addition to more goodies if Raila managed to win the African Union chairman post in February.

Throughout his career, Raila has also been a destabilising factor, often rocking successive governments, leading to resignations and restructuring. This dates back to 2001 when he was appointed to two ministerial positions in President Moi’s cabinet as Minister for Energy.

He later worked with Kibaki as Prime Minister in 2008, after securing half of the cabinet in what he described as a nusu mkate (half a loaf) government. His subsequent handshake with Uhuru Kenyatta created tensions within the ruling Jubilee Party, with Ruto expressing his dissatisfaction with the alliance.

Raila has once again demonstrated his indispensability, as President Ruto agreed to cede key ministries like Energy and Treasury to Raila’s close allies, who are also top ODM leaders from his community in Luo Nyanza.

It is worth noting that Raila has also resigned alongside his team due to disagreements with coalition partners, creating instability, particularly in the lead-up to the next elections.

Raila’s recent alignment with Ruto, however, came as a big surprise. The president had repeatedly vowed, during the latter’s cost of living demonstrations, that he would not accommodate Raila in government, accusing him of blackmailing the Kenya Kwanza administration to secure positions.

“There will be no handshake,” responded Ruto after he agreed to have dialogue talks in Parliament with his rival’s Azimio la Umoja coalition side.

The president said they would only engage in Parliament on the issues that had been raised by Kenyans during the cost of living protests.

“Those that Parliament can resolve, they will resolve,” said Ruto in April last year when Raila led countrywide anti-government protests. But all that changed after the Gen Z protests when Ruto rushed for help from the ODM leader to rescue his government from collapse.

Earlier, in 2018, after his fallout with then-Deputy President Ruto, President Uhuru Kenyatta also firmly embraced Raila and began promoting his presidential campaign, labelling Ruto’s faction “Tanga Tanga” (a loitering group).

Raila and his allies in the National Super Alliance (NASA) Coalition, which included Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula, had in 2017 petitioned and won the election case that ultimately nullified Uhuru’s victory.

The landmark ruling by the Supreme Court, then led by Chief Justice David Maraga, annulled the presidential elections. However, citing a lack of confidence in the electoral process, Raila declined to participate in the fresh elections ordered by the court.

After leading violent protests in major towns across the country, Raila later swore himself in as the “people’s president” at a ceremony officiated by maverick lawyer Miguna Miguna, who now resides in Canada.

Realising that Raila was again creating challenges in uniting the country and leading it towards peace without ethnic tensions, Uhuru reached out to the opposition leader. Together, they crafted an unholy alliance, agreeing to review the constitution through the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), which was later declared unconstitutional by the courts.

 Goodwill projects

The move infuriated Ruto, especially after he noticed that Uhuru was openly supporting Raila, who was to run against him in the 2022 presidential polls.

That time, however, Raila did not get any government or cabinet appointments. However, the Luo Nyanza region, especially the city of Kisumu received a lot of goodwill projects. It later emerged that his economic and political interests had also been factored into that agreement.

The latest dalliance between Ruto and Raila came when Ruto was facing a quiet rebellion from his deputy Rigathi Gachagua, forcing him to reach out to his rival for support in Parliament.

Gachagua had vowed not to allow Raila to go anywhere near State House, telling government supporters that he had laid traps in all corners to stop the ODM leader from reaching President Ruto’s official residence in Nairobi.

Fast forward to early this month, Raila seemed to be having the last laugh. He said in Vihiga; “Gachagua ako wapi sasa. Mtego wa panya huingia walikuweno na wasiokuwemo. (Where is Gachagua now. Rat traps catch those that are targeted and those that are not,” he was attending Senator Godfrey Osotsi’s home coming ceremony two weeks ago.

Raila spent nearly a decade in prison for his political activism and is considered not only a hero by many Kenyans but also receives sympathy votes from supporters, both young and old across the country, for what they view as his sacrifice.

Having served as MP for Nairobi’s Lang’ata constituency for 20 years, Raila also carved a niche for himself as an urbanite, although his political base has traditionally been stronger in rural constituencies.

He has also been a vocal advocate for land reforms and human rights, positions that earned him the support of the Maa community in Rift Valley, led by the late Cabinet Minister William Ole Ntimama, who defected from President Moi’s Kanu to ODM. This support was particularly notable during his fight for the eviction of settlers in the Mau Forest when he served as Prime Minister.

Former anti-corruption activist John Githongo once described Raila as “the gravitational center of Kenyan politics” and the “alpha male lion” of Kenyan public life.

Ahead of the 2013 presidential elections, The Foreign Policy, a publication of The Washington Post, wrote: “As with all statesmen of serious consequence, and tragic heroes, much of Odinga’s story is not his own.”

 Forgotten power struggles

The publication pointed out that it would be difficult to overestimate how much Jomo Kenyatta’s and his father Oginga Odinga’s feud, one of the great forgotten power struggles of the Cold War in Africa, had shaped Kenya. Kenyatta barred Odinga’s party KPU from holding meetings and the media from covering it from 1966, and when Odinga loyalists jeered Kenyatta at a meeting in Kisumu in 1969, leading to the killing of many people by the president’s security the political landscape changed.

ALSO READ: With the looming Ruto-Raila party, focus shifts from Mt Kenya region

“Were it not that you are my friend, you know what I would have done.” But a riot ensued, and Odinga was thereafter placed in detention for close to two years.

The FP wrote that as Kenyatta declined into doddering tyranny, Odinga became a folk hero. The man who like his son Raila was destined to become a king but never was.

“Raila had his charisma from the beginning. People think he began speaking up because of his father, but it’s not the case,” said Willy Mutunga, former Chief Justice.

He was speaking in his capacity as Raila’s former colleague when they taught together at the University of Nairobi, describing him as “always his own man.” After the 1982 coup, Raila endured a series of detentions without trial. According to one of his biographers, he was placed in a room with ankle-high cold water and made to stand in it throughout the night.

Despite the severity of the torture, he was never tried for the treasonous offences he was accused of committing. “The detainee was usually under a floodlight while the interrogators sat in partial darkness. The detainee could see fresh blood on the floor as if a battle had just ended,” wrote biographer Babafemi Badejo.

“No one came out apologetic. There was no chance of you joining the dictatorship. Those years hardened Raila,” said Mutunga. Other Kenyans interviewed by FP added that prison also made him more ambitious.