Had the gods been kinder, Raila Odinga would have celebrated his 80th birthday Tuesday as Kenya’s fifth president. A better script would have seen him in his eighth year of retirement, had he claimed the prize in the disputed 2007 presidential election.
The gods had other ideas, destining Raila as Kenya’s perennial opposition leader. The former premier has dreams of continental leadership and will be seeking to replace Moussa Faki Mahamat as the African Union Commission’s (AUC) chairperson in elections slated for next month.
Many are already writing off Raila’s chances to be Kenya’s president, as he will be 82 when the country next goes to the polls, making his AUC bid one of the few options he has in advancing his political career. This could, perhaps, be the true “last bullet” for the indefatigable politician.
The opposition veteran is pulling all stops to bag the role, and on Monday, he met Mauritius Prime Minister Navicnchandra Ramgoolam to lobby for the AU seat. However, as he revealed in a recent TV interview, Raila is not treating the AUC position as a matter of life and death.
“There is a winner and a loser and if we win then it is very good for us. If we lose, so what? We are basically here in Kenya and there will be other things for us to do. We are not worried about losing… but we are not competing to lose, we are competing to win,” he said on Citizen TV.
Raila’s four most recent attempts at the presidency have often seemed like a matter of life and death, especially among his most ardent supporters. Raila’s successive losses in elections have resulted in widespread protests in his strongholds, some of which he called for.
The Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya leader has left confusing signals on how he treated his presidential runs. In 2023, he led demonstrations aimed to force President William Ruto into resigning claiming he had been cheated out of the presidency.
There were similar protests in 2017 and 2007. In 2013, the opposition leader accepted a Supreme Court verdict that upheld Uhuru Kenyatta’s victory. However, he would eventually urge protests against the Independent Elections and Boundaries Commission for allegedly bungling the election.
That is the side of Raila, a man in constant rebellion, which gives the impression that he treats the presidency like a must-have. Then there is the other that shows that the position is not that big a deal. Many people believe he won the 2007 election, whose credibility the then-electoral commission chairperson, the late Samuel Kivuitu, admitted he could not vouch for.
Despite insistence by hardliners within his circle, such as Ruto, to accept nothing short of the presidency, Raila accepted a power-sharing deal with President Mwai Kibaki, which saw him take the prime minister role.
Five years later, after the Supreme Court ruled against their petition, Raila and his running mate Kalonzo Musyoka, paid Uhuru and Ruto a courtesy call at the State House, which helped settle post-election restlessness.
Credibility suffered
In March 2018, Raila shook hands with Uhuru, ending tensions that had been building up since a repeat election boycotted by the opposition. Uhuru, who won 98 per cent of the vote, had suffered a credibility dent since the Supreme Court found he had not won the August 2017 election fairly.
This side of Raila reappeared last year. Under pressure from a youth-led revolt, Ruto reached out to a foe who had called for his resignation months earlier, forming their “broad-based” partnership.
Stay informed. Subscribe to our newsletter
His allies view this version of Raila as a statesman, always ready to put the country first. However, critics see an opportunist constantly scouting for political deals since 2002, when Raila merged his National Development Party with the ruling Kanu, ostensibly to secure endorsement for a presidential bid.
He jumped ship when President Daniel arap Moi backed a novice, Uhuru, to face Kibaki in the 2002 elections.
Throughout his political career, Raila has always been a lesson in contradiction. His most significant introduction to Kenya’s politics was during the 1982 failed coup. Since then, he has grown to become, perhaps, the most consequential piece of Kenya’s recent political history.
Few would have thought that Raila, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s quiet son, harboured revolutionary thoughts. His older brother, Oburu Oginga, smuggled to and schooled in the socialist Soviet Union, seemed more like the troublemaker and the heir to Jaramogi’s political throne.
As communication consultant and political commentator, Barrack Muluka, noted in a 2018 essay, Raila always had his eye fixed on the prize.
“A hugely precocious child, even in the early years, Raila demonstrated edgy wit that made him the de facto leader of the Odinga children, often harrying the genial older boy. He easily sidestepped him and took over the role of captain of the Odinga siblings. It is a role he has carried to the national arena and to politics. Everywhere he goes, he seeks to be the overall leader and he often gets his way,” wrote Muluka.
Raila suffered detention without trial for nearly a decade for his alleged role in the attempted coup, and a brief stint in exile in Norway.
The ODM leader was part of the agitation for opening up Kenya’s democratic space. Among his most ardent followers, Raila is regarded as the “father of democracy”.
“Mzee is perhaps the most significant force in shaping Kenyan Democracy in recent decades. His contributions will always be recognized as the greatest in getting us where we are. The number of leaders, former, current and future who have passed through his leadership school is a testament to his stature as the father of democracy in Kenya,” said Nairobi Senator Sifuna.
Raila has actively participated in other causes that have advanced democracy, the most significant of which led to the promulgation of the 2010 Constitution. In a recent interview, former Trade Minister Mukisa Kituyi, Raila’s colleague in the second liberation struggle, highlighted Raila’s contribution to expanding the civil space.
“He has made sacrifices others were not ready to make. He has suffered pain for our national renewal when others were not ready to do it,” Kituyi said in an interview on the Alfa House podcast.
Raila has faced criticism over his truce with Ruto. Many Kenyans on social media have termed him a traitor for siding with an unpopular regime that brutalizes the citizens and abducts its critics. While many praise Raila’s pro-democracy efforts, others view him as a destabilizer, highlighting the 1982 coup and subsequent post-election protests.
There is also the issue of mentoring a successor. Outsiders often fault him for allegedly failing to craft a succession plan but those within his fold, like Sifuna, praise him for offering opportunities and guidance.
Raila’s close allies believe his consistency and belief has propelled him to stay relevant in the country’s political scene for decades. Others, however, believe his entry into leadership is a special calling that has made the masses love him.
Luo Council of elders chairman Odungi Randa says Raila has a special quality of leadership. According to Randa, a former personal assistant to Oginga Odinga, Raila keeps his words and has always placed the interest of the country ahead of his own personal interests.
He describes Raila as a straightforward person, a sentiment that critics have dismissed over the years as the opposition chief changed his political stance to enter into deals with governments.
Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o says Raila is unique because of the way he dealt with State repression, torture and alienation for many years without having to cave in.
“If anything, he became more resolute and focused on the main aim of our liberation struggle: the restoration of democracy and the respect of the human rights of all Kenyans irrespective of tribe, race, region, sex or colour,” Nyong’o says.
Migori Governor Ochilo Ayacko says what has made Raila unique is his knack and instincts to understand when the public is hurting.
“His decisions are aimed at mitigating or relieving the public from hurting,” Ayacko says.
According to Ayacko, who congratulated Raila on his 80th birthday, age has not slowed the former Prime Minister down and that makes him the leader for all ages and seasons.
He says Raila thinks like a Gen Z, acts like a middle-aged man but has acquired the calmness of an elder.
The former premier has been accused of using and dumping his political allies for selfish gain.
“The younger Odinga has betrayed tragic inability to make lasting friends. Political friends are instruments. They can be employed and be dispensed with when the purpose for which they were fashioned no longer obtains. His chameleonic political maneuvres led his biographer, Babafemi A. Badejo, to call him the enigma of Kenya’s politics,” noted Muluka.
Love him or hate him but Raila is a king without a crown. He is the only man without any government position who has time and again declared a public holiday. He has on numerous occasions caused constitutional lawyers to scram so as to reform Kenya’s supreme law, although he is not a lawyer.
Additional reporting by Anne Atieno
