Israel’s cabinet is reportedly preparing to meet to ratify a widely anticipated ceasefire deal with Hamas over Gaza, amid rightwing threats to bring Benjamin Netanyahu’s government down if it agrees to a hostages-for-prisoners agreement.
Mediators in Doha have been reported to be on the brink of a deal for the past two days, with varying accounts circulated on who and what is to blame for the 11th-hour delays. Netanyahu’s office denied accounts saying that Hamas had accepted the bargain on the table in the Qatari capital.
Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, was expected to hold a press conference on Wednesday evening, adding to the air of expectation.
With anticipation of a deal rising, Netanyahu and his defence minister, Israel Katz, met one of the leading far-right figures in the coalition, the finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich. Smotrich has been highly critical of proposed deals with Hamas and fellow hardline minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has asked him to join forces and pull their respective parties out of the coalition if the deal is agreed, potentially causing the government to fall.
However, unlike Ben-Gvir, public opinion polls suggest Smotrich could face political oblivion in the event of new elections, and political analysts point out he has more of an incentive to keep the Netanyahu coalition afloat. According to an Israeli television report, Smotrich presented Netanyahu with a list of conditions for his support, including a pledge to go back to war if Hamas emerged from the ruins still in control of the Gaza Strip, and to strictly limit the quantity of humanitarian aid allowed in.
The deal being finalised in Doha by US, Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari negotiators is reported to involve a phased ceasefire. In the first, 42-day phase, Hamas would release 33 hostages, including children, women – including female soldiers – and over-50s. In exchange, Israel would release 50 Palestinian prisoners for every Israeli female soldier released by Hamas, according to the Associated Press, and 30 for other hostages.
All fighting would pause during the first phase, and Israeli forces would withdraw from Gaza’s cities to a buffer zone along the edge of the strip, the details of which are to be laid out in maps both sides have to sign off on. The 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza would be allowed to return to their homes, moving freely between south and north Gaza, and an increased flow of aid would be allowed into Gaza, though the details of how much assistance there would be are unclear.
The second phase is designed be more comprehensive, with the remaining living hostages to be sent back and a corresponding ratio of Palestinian prisoners to be freed, alongside a complete Israeli withdrawal from the strip. That is a step Netanyahu has been very reluctant to take, and the specifics of this second phase would be a subject of further negotiations, which would start 16 days into the first phase.
The third phase would address the exchange of bodies of deceased hostages and Hamas members, and a reconstruction plan for Gaza would be launched, though how the territory would be governed remains hazy.
Officials in Doha said they were hopeful the remaining obstacles to a deal could be overcome late on Wednesday or early on Thursday, after 15 months of a war that has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians and 1,700 Israelis, and over which the international court of justice is studying claims of genocide.
