The ceasefire that – barring a major last-minute problem – is due to come into force on Sunday will cement massive and rapid changes across the Middle East and may seal a significant defeat for the Islamist militant groups which have been powerful actors in the region for years.
Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and assorted Shia Muslim militia in Iraq and Syria will all emerge from the conflict considerably weakened. Only the Houthis in Yemen are stronger – though this may not last. The Islamic State remains a shadow of its former self.
For an organisation like Hamas simply to survive a major conflict is an achievement, and means Israel has failed to achieve one of its primary war aims. But the concessions made by Hamas since coming close to a ceasefire last May underline its enfeebled state.
Though no reliable statistics exist and Hamas has undoubtedly recruited many new fighters, its military arm has been badly degraded by the Israeli onslaught, with most senior and middle-ranking commanders killed. The organisation maintains patchy authority in some areas of Gaza but nothing that resembles its full control through the 16 years when it completely controlled local government.
In October, Yahya Sinwar, the hardline Hamas leader and mastermind of the surprise attack in 2023 that triggered the conflict, was killed in a clash with Israeli soldiers in southern Gaza. The then political head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated by Israel while in Tehran. The organisation is now fundamentally split between a political leadership overseas, who have a more pragmatic approach, and hardliners in Gaza.
This may be a problem for the ceasefire – along with Israel’s reluctance to entirely quit Gaza. Sinwar’s replacement in Gaza, his brother Mohammed, controls the hostages who must be handed over for the deal to hold.
“The ceasefire is in the hands of Mohammed Sinwar. No one outside can impose anything on him,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a political scientist at Al-Azhar University, Gaza.
But Hamas political leaders outside Gaza recognise the losses they have suffered, and that they are being held partly responsible by Palestinians in Gaza for the devastation of the territory, where more than 46,000 – mostly civilians – have died in the Israeli offensive.
This is important for the “day after” the conflict, and how swiftly Hamas can recover, if it can at all.
“In Gaza, people are tired of Hamas … they would like anything that will bring reconstruction and they know that the international community won’t spend a dollar if Hamas is in charge” Abusada said.
Though experts point out high levels of support for Hamas in the occupied West Bank, others talk of the organisation’s “legitimacy crisis”. One big reason for the ceasefire is a new reality in the Middle East: that many of Hamas’s strongest allies are no longer in a position to help them.
Hezbollah, the keystone of Tehran’s “axis of resistance”, has suffered massive losses in its battle with Israel, losing most of its leadership and arsenal since Israel launched its offensive against the group last October. Almost as important was the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, which has deprived Hezbollah of a major logistics base and supply route from Iran, its vital supporter for more than 40 years. Political defeat has followed the military one. Last week, the Lebanese parliament finally elected a new president who is committed to curtailing Hezbollah’s power.
Iraq-based pro-Iranian militants have been unable to inflict any significant damage on Israel throughout the conflict.
“Hamas hasn’t changed, but the international context has,” said a source close to the organisation.
The proxies that Tehran has carefully cultivated over decades are now well aware of their sponsor’s recent failures.
“Iran lost Syria so quickly – in just 10 days – that many Iranians, Iraqis, Lebanese and others will be asking: how did this happen? It will take time for the members of the axis of resistance to restore their morale,” said Arman Mahmoudian, at the Global and National Security Institute, Florida.
With Hamas and Hezbollah so weakened, the most active among the Iranian coalition of militant groups are the Houthis in Yemen, who continue to fire missiles and rockets at Israel and target global shipping. Recent Israeli airstrikes appear to have had little dissuasive effect, though a ceasefire is likely to end hostilities, experts said.
Observers have warned of a wave of radicalisation across much of the Islamic world as a result of the war. This has already resulted in sporadic violence and fears among security officials of more. US officials in particular have raised concerns, reinforced by the Islamic State-inspired attack in New Orleans earlier this month.
Regional security officials now think that this might begin to subside, though “only just in time”.
Another significant development has been the victorious campaign of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group, in Syria. The group is led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former senior commander in both al-Qaida and Islamic State. For years, Sharaa has made efforts to convince Syrians and the international community that he has jettisoned his extremist ideology, reaching out to minorities and downplaying religious agendas.
The success of Sharaa’s pragmatic strategy contrasts with the unchanging approach of the groups he once fought for. This too could further undermine the extremists.
A final major shift is the return of the Palestinian issue to the forefront of regional and global politics. If Israel’s policymakers and generals feel vindicated by any apparent success, this might give pause.
“Gaza has been a gamechanger for Israel. Its reputation has been badly damaged, there are the international criminal cases [against Israeli leaders], the global moral backlash and the conflict has pushed the Palestinians up the international agenda. There is now a whole new generation of global citizens who believe the Palestinians should be free,” said Alia Brahimi, a regional expert at the Atlantic Council.
“We can’t assume that a ceasefire will hold, but if it does, it gives everyone the opportunity to do what they should have done all along. It is an opportunity to move away from war as a tool or a default solution.”
A definitive end to the conflict in Gaza will help reduce the chaos and violence across the region that extremists of all types can exploit, say experts.
“If the ceasefire becomes permanent, we will see more stability in the region,” said Abusada.
