The bright neon lights of Las Vegas will once again launch the NRL season into orbit in 2025, highlighted by Penrith setting off on their pursuit of an historic fifth-straight premiership. Can they stave off the challengers led by Melbourne or will their remarkable run at the top come to an end in 2025?
Eighth – Brisbane Broncos
There is a lot of faith being put into a Brisbane Broncos team that has played finals football just once in the last five seasons and whose ability to score points sits on the shoulders of two 35-year-olds. Souths were widely criticised for letting Adam Reynolds walk but their views on his health at the backend of the long-term contract proved justified last year. Ben Hunt has been much less injury-prone but his body has taken a lot over 334 games. The duo is set to start in the halves for the start of the season with star five-eighth Ezra Mam suspended for nine weeks. New coach Michael Maguire took the reins with much fanfare after a memorable year in charge of NSW but club football is different and Maguire is 47-87 in his last six seasons at club level. With little in the way of depth and an imbalanced roster that has too many halves and bookers, the general view of the Broncos as the primary threat to the Panthers-Storm positions at the top of the tree is a fanciful one.
Seventh – New Zealand Warriors
At face value, the Warriors face a tough task in 2025 following the loss of Addin Fonua-Blake and the retirements of Shaun Johnson and Tohu Harris. While Johnson and Harris were no doubt at the end of their storied careers, Fonua-Blake has been the best prop in the game over the last two seasons and his impact on the attack has been immense with no prop scoring more tries over that time. The club did an admirable job in bringing in James Fisher-Harris as a replacement and certainly have the talent to improve. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck should improve a year back into the 13-man game, Te Maire Martin is a highly underrated player and Taine Tuaupiki is one of the best young talents to come out of New Zealand in a long while. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak will be sidelined for a long time meaning the young players will have to shoulder a lot of the burden – but there is hope there with a Warriors team that is well coached and with plenty of ability.
Sixth – Canterbury Bulldogs
The question the Bulldogs face in 2025 is around the sustainability of their 2024 season: was it the start of a resurgent Canterbury or are the Bulldogs facing a regression towards the dark days that have pockmarked the last decade. Canterbury were far less active in free agency this year, primarily trying to bolster their pack with the likes of Sitili Tupouniua, Tom Amone and Zyon Maiu’u. The loss of metre-eating winger Jacob Kiraz for the start of the season is a huge loss, while there is more hope than expectation that Connor Tracey, Toby Sexton and Kurt Mann can match their career-best seasons of 2024.
Fifth – The Dolphins
The curse of Wayne Bennett – and the Dolphins’ ability to overcome it – is all that stands between the Dolphins and their maiden finals appearance. History, at face value, is very much against them finding any kind of success under Kristian Woolf with the likes of Jason Demetriou, Anthony Seibold, Rick Stone, Steve Price and Ivan Henjak all failing to fire once Bennett departed. This looks a little different. Bennett left on good terms and has not gutted the roster. He also took pride in building the Dolphins up to where they are. Star forward Tom Gilbert returns from a lengthy injury and Tom Flegler is expected to return after complications with his shoulder, while there have been some astute purchases led by edge Kulikefu Finefeuiaki. With a star-studded backline led by Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, the Dolphins look to be on the ascent.
Fourth – Manly Sea Eagles
As per much of the last half-decade, Manly’s season very much swings on the health of Tom Trbojevic. Arguably the most damaging player in the game when fully fit, the star Manly custodian has missed at least half of the season in four of the last six years. Coach Anthony Seibold floated shifting him to the centres but fortunately for Manly such silliness went nowhere. Trbojevic headlines arguably the most potent backline in the NRL, particularly with the emergence of young star Lehi Hopoate. It is the pack that is more concerning but the signings of Jazz Tevaga and Sio Siua Taukeiaho added some much-needed gumption. Manly beat both Melbourne and Penrith last year so have the upside to go a long way in 2025.
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Third – Cronulla Sharks
The major question looming large over the Sharks this season is not whether this team is good enough to play finals football but whether it can take the next step and find themselves back on the grand final stage. In three years under Craig Fitzgibbon, the Sharks have finished no worse than sixth with two top-four finishes in that time. Fitzgibbon has proven not only adept at getting the best out of the Sharks over the course of the regular season but in recruiting the biggest free agent names and he has struck again in bringing in the best prop in the NRL in Addin Fonua-Blake. Nicho Hynes will need to conquer his confidence issues and fullback Will Kennedy faces a make-or-break season but this is a Sharks team that will remain a title force.
Second – Penrith Panthers
Penrith have shown a remarkable ability to handle player departures over the course of the last four seasons but now face arguably their toughest challenge in losing star five-eighth Jarome Luai and forward leader James Fisher-Harris. Also gone is star winger Sunia Turuva. The Panthers have done an admirable job with recruitment, bringing in boom Eels youngster Blaize Talagi and journeyman forward Isaiah Papali’i but the loss of Luai gives Penrith far less leeway to manage Nathan Cleary and his injures that have limited him to just 52 of a possible 82 games over the last three years. The loss of Penrith Stadium will also hurt over the course of the season. The Panthers are likely to pay little heed to the regular season, just making sure they are primed in September for a tilt at title number five.
First – Melbourne Storm
Melbourne enter the 2025 season highly confident that they can end Penrith’s run of premiership success and bookend their historic dynasty. The Storm got very close last year, actually jumping as favourites in the decider. The Storm have not only added NSW prop Stefano Utoikamanu to an already loaded roster but have seen the likes of Sualauvi Fa’alogo, Tyran Wishart, Jack Howarth and Shawn Blore emerge as genuine first graders. The Storm are a team with a top-four floor, choking on talent and blessed with the greatest coach the game has ever known. This is Melbourne’s premiership to lose.
