Raila plays smart on his Ruto deal, but who is fooling who?

The ink has yet to dry on an agreement between President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, but the latter is already sending mixed signals.

He appears to be hunting with the hounds and running with the hares carrying himself as a critic of the government while he is a key insider whose allies are in Cabinet.

With Raila’s admission that his truce with Dr Ruto could yield a larger “formation”, it seemed Raila had his heart and soul inside the new partnership. If Ruto had thought this to be the case, the former PM’s remarks in Kiambu must have left the President with questions.

Raila rapped the government over failed health services and high taxation and implied that he had not committed to the Head of State. “SHA is not working. It has to be worked on. Tax is overburdening Kenyans, this tax is too high,” said Raila.

He also said the affordable housing levy is too high and must be re-looked. “… and this cannot happen when we are outside the government. We put our people in various capacities to help them,” Raila said during the burial of Lewis Kimani Waiyaki, a long-time friend.

He said he was approached by a “panicky” Ruto ahead of the controversial handshake. “I have not gone to Ruto, it is Ruto who came for me. I am still holding onto my ideals and I can confirm that I am still fighting for all Kenyans. You remember last year I was with Kenyans demonstrating because of the high cost of living and rising prices of commodities,” the former premier said, acknowledging the disquiet among Kenyans that he had abandoned the opposition.

“Many were killed by police, they even deployed the military to quell the youngsters. Ruto panicked and called us to unite with him to constitute a new government,” Raila said.

He said his failed bid to be the African Union Commission chairperson last month did not deter his resolve to push for the interests of Kenyans. “I have come back home. Do you people want me to go back to Bondo? I will soldier on, I want the best of Kenyans,” Raila added.

He said the pending issues agreed in the MoU must be ironed out, an action he said was only possible through dialogue. “They have panicked again subsequently they have come to us and we have agreed on 10 points and all the points are the same issues that had taken us to the streets. Once they are done we shall now wait for the election in 2027 and people will make a choice,” Raila said.

Over the weekend, Raila, whose Agwambo moniker implies a ‘mysterious’ man, said he was free to enter into coalitions with like-minded partners as long as it would benefit ODM members.

“Who have I betrayed? I have betrayed no one… we as ODM, have a stand, customs and ideals,” said Raila.

Raila’s remarks came days after he faced a hostile crowd in Kisii, who chanted “Ruto must go” and “Raila must go”. Days earlier, the former PM had chided former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i’s presidential ambitions, saying he could not secure the seat with Kisii votes alone.

Some of Raila’s allies from the region have described the hostility as a reality check on the former premier’s truce with Ruto, which has been very unpopular on social media and termed a “betrayal” in some quarters.

As Raila fired from the hip in Kiambu, the Head of State was marketing their partnership in rallies in Mathare, a traditional opposition stronghold. Since Monday he has held engagements in Nairobi in the company of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) lawmakers, led by the party’s chair in the capital city, Makadara MP George Aladwa.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino have skipped the rallies. It was no surprise that Babu did not attend the events. He has been critical of the Head of State and recently backed former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, who seeks to challenge Ruto for the presidency in 2027.

Sifuna, the Secretary General of Raila’s ODM, was present as his party signed the 10-point MoU with Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance, which, among other things, aims to implement the National Dialogue Committee report, curb opulence and end abductions of government critics.

Ahead of the announcement of the pact, the Nairobi Senator had been critical of a deal between ODM and UDA, recently saying it would be “imprudent” for ODM not to field a challenger to Ruto, highlighting the President’s growing unpopularity, especially in Mount Kenya and among the youth.

He said the Head of State would still lose even if ODM were to support his re-election bid. He seems to have had no change of heart, clarifying as they unveiled the MoU that it was only aimed at resolving the socio-economic and political challenges facing Kenya.

“We have taken the liberty to read out this memorandum of understanding so that we are all clear on what it is and what it is not,” said Sifuna.

Prior to the handshake, there had been two factions within ODM differing about whether their party leader should formally partner with Ruto. However, observers read it as a plot by Raila to avoid committing to one side.