Kenyans wonder what Raila has in store for them as ODM abandons watchdog role

Is ODM leader Raila Odinga still interested in running for president in the near future after his latest handshake with President William Ruto?

This is the question on the minds of many Kenyans and the country’s political enthusiasts both at home and the world at large.

But Raila is telling those with doubts about his mission to put their fears to rest.

He says he has not betrayed his erstwhile opposition colleagues and other Kenyans fighting for better governance, insisting that he is determined to end human rights abuse and misuse of power by the current administration.

He told mourners in Kiambu County last week that, contrary to claims by opposition leaders that he had abandoned them, it is President Ruto who sought him out to help fight corruption, human rights abuse and create equality.

The reality, however, is that Raila is no longer actively working with the opposition colleagues in demanding for accountability. He is instead hobnobbing and cutting deals with those in power while sharing government and Parliamentary committee leadership positions, among other government largesse.

Political analyst Martin Andati sees some sense of betrayal from Raila against young Kenyans and communities that feel cheated and are now talking about charting their own way forward.

“Even if Raila gets the support of some MPs, they will most likely lose elections, because indicators are that 90 per cent of them will lose their seats. Those numbers they are having in Parliament will not be there after the next elections,” Mr Andati said.

Questions are also being asked if Raila can still hold on to his fanatical followers and wield influence as the country transitions into a new political order championed by youthful leaders challenging the current leadership.

Some pundits argue that Raila is capable of pulling another surprise given his unpredictable past, but others fear his chances are fast diminishing, especially now that he is willing to strike power-sharing deals with the Kenya Kwanza government, that is largely unpopular.

“Raila has changed a lot over the years, from a fighter of the people to a power-sharing champion who can switch political divides in a blink of an eye for his own convenience,” says former Kituo Cha Sheria member Mburu Chege.

Opposition colleagues are equally perturbed at the ODM leader’s flagrant decision to abandon them and sign a power-sharing Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with President William Ruto.

“Even if you decide to abandon your colleagues, at least have the decency of informing them that you are leaving. How can you join President Ruto when we moved all over the country campaigning for you against him?” asks Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni.

DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa also scoffed at Raila’s decision as he urged opposition colleagues to unite and continue fighting to liberate Kenyans from heavy taxation, corruption and tribalism.

But as the politicians and critics cry foul over the alleged betrayal, some analysts argue that Raila is just repeating what he did in the past.

“He is just harvesting what he considers to be the labour of his past agitations against those in power and letting the future take care of itself. That is what happened in all previous agreements with Presidents Daniel arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta. But he is now taking it to a different level,” says an unhappy ODM MP from the Western region.

Former Cabinet minister Kipruto arap Kirwa argues that the current political agreement between Ruto and Raila will now define the latter’s destiny and is likely to end his political career.

“Kenyans have trusted their leaders for far too long but because of the huge trust deficit, they are now asking themselves, who is reliable? The youth are saying fagia wote (We want a clean slate),” says Mr Kirwa.

Kirwa also faults the argument that Raila and Ruto will transfer the almost seven million votes each received in 2022 to their basket in the 2027 presidential polls from the realignment that is taking shape.

He thinks the Ruto-Raila marriage can only manage to raise about six million votes combined were elections to be held now. That means Raila’s political support will also reduce because of the handshake.

The former minister sees Ruto getting just about four million votes, down from seven million, because of the large Mt Kenya numbers that former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua disappeared with after his impeachment late last year.

“Raila’s numbers are also diminishing because he may not get the same votes in Western and Kisii where new forceful political players, who are not happy with the distribution of positions and resources, are emerging,” says Kirwa.

Last week, Majority Whip Silvanus Osoro told a meeting of Kisii and Kuria leaders that they are having a problem at home because their people believe they are not getting any benefit from the political support they are giving to their Luo Nyanza neighbours.

Nyaribari Masaba MP Daniel Manduku has already pointed out that although they are happy that ODM is now sitting at the table after failing to capture power in 2022, they also now want direct benefits from the new arrangement.

The Abagusii leaders are arguing that the few positions that were recently made available  to ODM in Cabinet went to Luo Nyanza and if they are not considered in the next available appointments, then they will opt out of the party.

“We shall ask our people to gracefully exit ODM if we don’t get an equitable allocation of positions and resources. We will have no business in this political arrangement,” says Manduku.

Kirwa, who is a former Cheragany MP, argues that the likelihood of some aggressive non-conformist MPs abandoning the ODM party to work with other partners before 2027 is real and that will further threaten the numbers Raila has for Ruto in the next election.

Sources also indicated that many decisions Raila makes now are also heavily influenced by his immediate family members, unlike in the past when he stubbornly, independently and aggressively drove political decisions.

“We are seeing a different Raila from the opposition leader that he was in the past. He is harvesting the labour of his struggles and letting the future take care of itself. Raila is, however, still the schemer who knows how to seize the opportunity,” says a close ally who spoke to The Standard.

Young Kenyans are also increasingly becoming restless with his style of politics. The heckling and mass walkout at a meeting he convened in Kisii last week, a region known as an ODM stronghold, is a signal of his waning influence.

Last year, during the Gen Z protests against the Finance Bill and agitation for good governance, Raila ignored their call, when they urged him to leave the stage and allow them take over because he “has played his part.”

He instead decided to move in and help steady the Kenya Kwanza ship when the protestors attacked Parliament and almost toppled the government. Raila’s bold decision, although heavily unpopular, has seen ODM get rewarded with positions in Cabinet and key parliamentary committees.

Some allies like Dagoreti North MP Beatrice Elachi argue that Raila will still play an important role in the 2027 and 2032 presidential elections, while others think the ODM leader knows that chances of him leading the country are now behind him.

“Because of Baba’s energy, he is not just looking at what will happen in 2027. He is also focused on 2032 because ODM has to fulfil its desire of reorganizing governance structures in Kenya,” says Ms Elachi.

Elachi further argues that Raila decided to work with the government in order to achieve his future dream. To do that, Elachi says, he decided to get into the government for a better understanding of how to deal with the challenges Kenyans are facing.

Political pundits caution that to remain relevant, Raila will in future have to change tack instead of using the same old trick of either manipulating those in power or seizing emerging opportunities to benefit from sitting governments.

Raila has dramatically managed to work with almost all political outfits in the past. But he has now caused another political storm, literally killing the Azmio la Umoja One Kenya coalition that is the minority side in Parliament.

Political analyst Macharia Munene also argues that Raila finds himself comfortable with President Ruto because they formed ODM together and therefore hopes to use him as a stepping stone into power.

Prof Munene remembers Raila being in government and the opposition at the same time when his NDP party signed a cooperation pact with President Moi after the 1997 elections, while he was also sitting on the opposition side in Parliament.

“He tried to play games with both sides at that time and that is exactly what he is doing with Ruto. He is fully in government and pretending to be in the opposition at the same time,” Munene said.

He says Raila should learn from past events, including when President Moi tricked the late Kajiado MP John Keen who was in Mwai Kibaki’s Democratic Party to defect into Kanu so that he could make him Vice President.

“Moi told him he was going to take over from George Saitoti as Vice President but after defecting, the President asked him to be patient.