Voters in the Rift Valley region are keenly following the political ramifications of President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga’s newly cemented partnership.
The partnership is perceived to have the potential to reconfigure the country’s political landscape if the two leaders agree to pull together in the same direction in 2027 polls.
Though the pact’s details have not been made public, all indications point to Ruto working on consolidating his support bases and opening new frontiers with an eye on his 2027 re-election bid.
The Rift Valley region, the President’s political bastion, has 14 counties and 5,349,889 registered voters, according to the 2022 voter register.
The counties are Turkana, West Pokot, Samburu, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Kericho, Bomet, Nandi, Elgeyo/Marakwet, Laikipia and Nakuru.
The figure constitutes 24 per cent of the country’s 22,102,532 registered voters, as contained in the 2022 official Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) voter register.
The region has four distinct ethnic voting blocks, comprising mainly the Kalejin, Kikuyu, Maasai, and Turkana communities and pockets of the Luhya, Luo, and Kisii voters.
During the last general election, President Ruto garnered 2.6 million votes in the region, while Raila, his main challenger, polled 1.1 million votes.
Political analysts argue that should the duo’s political marriage weather all possible storms and they stick together in the 2027 polls, they are likely to transform the Rift Valley region into a formidable voting block to challenge the equally vote-rich Mt Kenyan region.
President Ruto rode on a high political tide in the Mt Kenya region, which solidly backed his presidential bid but has now drifted away from him following complaints of unfilled political pledges, soaring economic challenges, and the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who was his running mate in the last elections.
Since last year, Ruto has been reaching out to new political allies in a surprise move that saw him close ranks with Odinga, whose bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship he fully supported and funded with government resources.
Political analyst Andrew Nyabuto says President Ruto and Raila have solid political support bases that, if well-mobilised, could challenge any opposing candidate.
“Politics is dynamic, and no election is similar to another as various variables keep changing. For President Ruto, the 2022 general election is water under the bridge, and that is why he is positioning himself in the political market to establish new political allies while establishing new support bases,” Nyabuto said.
The political analyst said that the President, having lost the Mt Kenya region, must bring new areas into his fold to compensate for the lost votes.
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“That is why we have seen the President reaching out to Raila, who has impeccable and unassailable support in Nyanza and the Western and Coast regions. He also commands a sizeable following in Northern Kenya region and Nairobi County,” Nyabuto added.
Nyabuto notes that Raila’s ardent supporters have been the Maasai, Samburu, Turkana, Luhyas, and Kisii communities in Rift Valley.
“It is instructive to note that Raila got more votes than President Ruto in Trans Nzoia County, which is mainly cosmopolitan but has a massive portion of the Luhya community. He also pipped President Ruto in Turkana, Narok, Kajiado and Samburu counties,” Nyabuto added.
Harold Kipchumba, a former ODM nominated senator, says the country’s political dynamics will keep changing as it heads towards the next general elections as President Ruto finds a new footing with the political ground in Mt Kenya continuing to become more slippery for him.
“Although President Ruto and Raila have different political orientations and ideologies, the two are coming together as their interests have converged. Both are on a political survival mission. President Ruto has realized that he cannot survive without Raila, especially following last year’s uprising by the youth, which put his administration in a precarious position,” Mr Kipchumba said.
Kipchumba argues that Ruto and Raila were dominant political figures in the Rift Valley region, where they have long associations with voters.
The former senator says that the region’s politics will be shaped by how the government will have fulfilled its campaign agenda.
“There is also another aspect where the region’s politics could be influenced by the desire of some sections of the communities to maintain political stability and ethnic harmony. Some of the Kikuyus in Rift Valley appear not enthusiastic about aligning themselves with the hardline position taken against the Ruto administration by their counterparts in Mt Kenya region,” Kipchumba added.
He opines that Turkana County, which has been backing Raila, would be inclined to support Ruto following the appointment of a person from the region into the Cabinet on Raila’s recommendation.
The former senator argues the appointment of former Turkana Governor Joseph Nanok as the deputy head of civil service has also appeased members of the community who feel they are part of the government.
“The Ruto administration has appointed several Turkana residents to various positions in the government, including ambassadorial postings. This has changed the people’s perception towards the President and now, with Raila on board, the Turkana community can very easily support his re-election bid,” Kipchumba said.
“There have been complaints amongst the residents, including traders, farmers, professionals and the youth in the Rift Valley region that the country is not headed in the right direction, and this does not augur well for the President. Nevertheless, many Kalenjins voicing their concerns may not openly come out to challenge the President but may fail to give him the kind of support they accorded to him in the last general election,” he added.
The former nominated senator, however, opined that some ODM supporters were still opposed to Raila’s decision to drag the party into a relationship with Ruto.
John Busiii Ateker, a Kanu political party operative in the region, says the political dynamics in the Rift Valley region would change if Ruto and Raila continued to stick together, as they have a sizeable following.
“Raila’s influence on the Turkana, Maasai, Samburu and Luhya communities in Rift Valley has been demonstrated for a very long time and that is why his working relationship with the President is likely to have an impact on the region’s voting pattern ahead of 2027,” Mr Ateker said.
Joseph Lotondo, a former assistant minister, said that President Ruto and Raila’s partnership could potentially restructure the region’s political direction.
“The two leaders have an influence that they can use to their advantage, especially if the government manages to address some of the challenges facing wananchi at the grassroots level,” Mr Lotondo observed.
