Patch-patch politics and the unraveling of Tinubu’s rule, By Mohammed Dahiru Aminu

To put it charitably, Tinubu’s presidency is already in decline, and his chances of securing a second term are rapidly diminishing. He is a patch-patch president, one who came to power by default rather than by genuine political merit. The economic crisis, insecurity and internal party divisions are all signs that his grip on power is slipping. If the opposition plays its cards right and presents a united front, Tinubu will be nothing more than a one-term president remembered for the suffering he inflicted on Nigerians.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu is what I call a “patch-patch president;” a leader who stumbled into power not through any remarkable political strategy or personal merit, but because the opposition was too disorganised, too compromised, and too self-serving to present a united front. His ascension was not a triumph of vision or governance but a testament to the dysfunction within Nigeria’s political system. In a free and fair election, where institutions function as they should and where credibility is a determining factor, Tinubu would not stand a chance in 2027 if the opposition can finally get its act together. And he knows it. That is his biggest nightmare.

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is a house built on shaky foundations, riddled with contradictions, infighting and a lack of ideological cohesion. The silence from the APC hierarchy, despite the recent aggressive posturing of Nasir El-Rufai, a former ally-turned-opposition-figure, speaks volumes. The ruling party is desperately trying to douse the flames of discord with cold water, while El-Rufai keeps pouring gasoline on the fire. This is not just an ordinary political scuffle. It is a clear sign that Tinubu’s presidency is unraveling from within.

El-Rufai, for all his faults, is a master political strategist who understands the inner workings of Nigeria’s power structure. His recent moves suggest that he is positioning himself as a formidable opposition force. If the APC had any real confidence in Tinubu’s leadership, it would have moved swiftly to counter El-Rufai’s attacks, but its silence is deafening. It suggests hesitation, uncertainty and possibly internal divisions. No one wants to go down with a sinking ship and many within the APC are beginning to realise that Tinubu’s government is heading toward a dead end.

The idea that Tinubu deserves a second term simply because the South must complete eight years is beyond ridiculous. If such logic held any weight, then why was the North not allowed the same privilege after President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s untimely death? The truth is, if uninterrupted leadership by any region were so important, then splitting the presidency and vice presidency between two different zones was always a foolish strategy. The North-South rotational presidency is a relic of an outdated political arrangement that has outlived its usefulness. It collapsed the moment it faced the realities of Nigeria’s ever-complex political landscape.

His economic team seems more interested in propaganda than in actual solutions. The so-called policies meant to stabilise the economy have only caused more hardship. The cost-of-living crisis is at an all-time high, with no relief in sight. How does a president who has plunged his people into untold suffering expect to win a second term? Tinubu’s inability to curb insecurity is another damning indictment of his presidency. Under his watch, banditry, terrorism and kidnappings have continued unabated.

Tinubu’s political survival is predicated on his ability to control the levers of power within his party and suppress opposition through a mixture of patronage and coercion. But the cracks are beginning to show. The economy is in shambles, insecurity remains a persistent nightmare, and public confidence in his leadership is rapidly eroding. Tinubu’s governance or the lack thereof, has failed to inspire hope in even his most ardent supporters. The so-called “Renewed Hope Agenda” has become a cruel joke, a tragic irony in a country where citizens are struggling more than ever.

Tinubu inherited a terrible economy, but instead of making bold reforms to fix it, he doubled down on failed policies. His removal of the fuel subsidy was done in such a reckless and unplanned manner that it sent inflation skyrocketing and plunged millions of Nigerians into deeper poverty. The naira continues to depreciate at an alarming rate, businesses are closing, and investors are fleeing. Nigeria’s economic crisis under Tinubu is a continuation of past failures and a worsening of an already dire situation.

His economic team seems more interested in propaganda than in actual solutions. The so-called policies meant to stabilise the economy have only caused more hardship. The cost-of-living crisis is at an all-time high, with no relief in sight. How does a president who has plunged his people into untold suffering expect to win a second term? Tinubu’s inability to curb insecurity is another damning indictment of his presidency. Under his watch, banditry, terrorism and kidnappings have continued unabated. The Nigerian military and security forces are overstretched, underfunded and perhaps often demoralised. His administration has done little to change the security architecture in a way that addresses the root causes of these issues. Nigerians are tired of living in fear and unless Tinubu finds a real solution to the insecurity crisis, he should forget about a second term.

Tinubu’s greatest advantage in 2023 was not his political prowess but the inability of the opposition to unite against him. Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar split the votes that could have easily ended APC’s reign. If the opposition parties learn from their past mistakes and present a single formidable candidate in 2027, Tinubu’s re-election bid will be dead on arrival. The youth movement that galvanised support for Peter Obi in 2023 is still alive and their discontent with Tinubu’s government is only growing. If this movement is properly harnessed and merged with Atiku’s traditional strongholds in the North, Tinubu’s fate will be sealed. His presidency was never built on overwhelming national acceptance but on a fractured electoral landscape that benefited him by default. That same landscape could become his greatest downfall in 2027.

Tinubu has tried to sell himself as a master strategist, but in reality, he is a man fighting against the tide of inevitability. His government is crumbling, his party is divided, and his policies are failing. The 2027 election will not be won on empty rhetoric, media propaganda or political thuggery. It will be determined by the anger and frustration of the Nigerian people, who have had enough.

But Tinubu is not a fool as he understands that his government is failing and his second-term ambitions are hanging by a thread. That is why he is desperately trying to consolidate power, silence critics and suppress dissent. But the reality is that no amount of political maneuvering can erase the suffering Nigerians are facing daily. His biggest fear is not just losing in 2027 but the possibility of a post-presidency reckoning where he is held accountable for the economic and social decay under his administration.

Tinubu has tried to sell himself as a master strategist, but in reality, he is a man fighting against the tide of inevitability. His government is crumbling, his party is divided, and his policies are failing. The 2027 election will not be won on empty rhetoric, media propaganda or political thuggery. It will be determined by the anger and frustration of the Nigerian people, who have had enough.

To put it charitably, Tinubu’s presidency is already in decline, and his chances of securing a second term are rapidly diminishing. He is a patch-patch president, one who came to power by default rather than by genuine political merit. The economic crisis, insecurity and internal party divisions are all signs that his grip on power is slipping. If the opposition plays its cards right and presents a united front, Tinubu will be nothing more than a one-term president remembered for the suffering he inflicted on Nigerians. His administration is proof that politics built on personal ambition rather than national interest is doomed to fail. The countdown to 2027 has already begun, and for Tinubu, the writing is on the wall. The Nigerian people will decide his fate and if current realities persist, they will reject him in a landslide.

Mohammed Dahiru Aminu (mohd.aminu@gmail.com) wrote from Abuja, Nigeria.