Courtesy of the political masterstroke that was winning over former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, it is apparent President William Ruto is flying high.
He is on solid ground in Parliament and seems to have won over significant portions of Raila’s supporters, mostly from the former premier’s bastions in Nyanza and Nairobi.
Despite the gains, the Head of State is leaving nothing to chance. He has kept his campaigns as vigorous as ever, almost like a politician fighting for survival.
The opposition, at least the section headed by traditional politicians, seems to be reading Ruto’s political career as hanging by a thread, perhaps made apparent by their reluctance to take the fight to the President.
In several of his recent rallies in Nairobi, Ruto challenged the opposition to gear themselves for a challenge, proof that he had begun his re-election campaign.
Conversely, the remaining opposition, led by politicians like Kalonzo Musyoka and Martha Karua, has yet to take their message to campaign podiums. So far, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has come out the strongest against Ruto.
Gachagua’s challenge to his former boss is complicated. Removed from office by impeachment last October, he cannot seek elective office unless the courts overturn the impeachment.
The stakes are high for Kalonzo, who has harboured presidential ambitions for two decades but contested only in the 2007 general election. Does the Wiper party leader see things this way? Perhaps yes and no.
Aware of Raila’s influence, the former vice president has mostly shied from attacking him, wooing him back to join the opposition. He is also seeking to cement his partnership with Gachagua with the hope that he will win the Mount Kenya vote. Kalonzo has also maintained consistency in calling out the government over its failures. Such actions speak of a man strategizing for the next elections, slightly over two years away.
The Wiper leader’s reluctance to hit the campaign trail and blasting Ruto for “trying to mask his failures” by campaigning early could be interpreted as lacking urgency. For months now, he has been riding on the dissent young people have expressed for the President since last June.
Kalonzo had previously said he would emulate Ruto by campaigning early, but he has backed his words with little action.
“I must confess that if there is anything I learnt from William Ruto, it was the fact that he started campaigning immediately after they took office with President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2013,” Kalonzo said last year.
Gitile Naituli, a professor of leadership and management, said he was “surprised” that Kalonzo is not campaigning.
“Since Raila left, Kalozno should have taken the former Prime Minister’s space in the opposition. He has not. Whoever will be President will be someone who really wants the job. Ruto really wanted it and that is why he got it. He is a good case study on campaigning but a bad one on governing,” said Prof Naituli.
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Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi, a Kalonzo ally, argued his party leader was “not taking any chances.”
“There is a time for everything. There will be a time for campaigns. He is moving slowly and he knows that this is not a time for politics. That does not mean that my party leader is relaxing. He has been engaging Kenyans massively and maybe it has not been prominently broadcast,” said Mwangangi.
Kenya’s political atmosphere offers confusing signals about where the Head of State stands with the restless nation. On the one hand, there is the ‘Ruto Must Go’ wave that has captured the online space and is expressed at night clubs, social events and political rallies. Recently, the wave hit a football match.
On the other hand, there are the huge crowds Ruto has pulled in recent tours of Raila’s traditional strongholds in Nairobi and other parts of the country.
The reception in most of the campaign trips, disguised as development tours, has been warm, nay, ecstatic, creating the impression that the President was popular in some areas.
Still, he is seen as weak by foes and would-be allies. For instance, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna said, before his Orange Democratic Movement party partnered with Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance, that Ruto would still lose even with Raila’s support, implying how weak he was. He has yet to change his mind.
Gachagua, too, has consistently said Raila would not help the President much, describing Raila as a life support machine. Mwangangi said Ruto was “the weakest at the moment” and argued the Head of State would falter against any candidate, “at least where I come from.”
“He has allowed his administration to bring programmes that are hurtful to Kenyans. People are angry,” Mwangangi said.
Mukuruwe-ini Member of Parliament John Kaguchia concurred, highlighting the public dissent against the Head of State.
“He is deeply unpopular that it does not require the action from any party against him. In such cases we say that the errors of omission and commission of one party are too detrimental for their own way forward. But it doesn’t mean that the opposition can slumber. And that is why Gachagua has been meeting people. Kalonzo and others are moving slower because most Kenyans are not ready for the political rhetoric,” said Kaguchia.
Saboti MP Caleb Amisi said Ruto’s loss in the next election would not be about the opposition figures but the Head of State’s blunders.
“Kenyans have taken a stand that Ruto must go and this means that anyone can emerge and easily defeat him. The danger for the President is that he carries the ‘Must Go’ tag. Baba is always with the people and will go back to the people when the time is right,” said Amisi.
Such assertions of a ‘weak’ are spurred on by Ruto’s move to cede Cabinet slots to the opposition for political survival. He gave out five ministerial seats to Raila’s allies last year and recently selected more opposition figures as principal secretaries.
Naituli argues that it was as though Kalonzo and the rest of the opposition were underestimating Ruto.
“You must always exaggerate the opponent’s power so that you are not surprised. He could also be assuming that he will be the natural candidate of the opposition, and that is wrong. Looking at the political environment, anyone can defeat Ruto. He is universally hated by the youth, and he is a known quantity. No one knew him well enough in 2022, and he spoke a message that resonated with Kenyans. He said he would change the system that manufactured poverty for most Kenyans but ended up joining the system,” Naituli said.
When he was dishing out the Cabinet slots, Ruto was, undoubtedly, weak. He had suffered a scare by youthful protesters, who had threatened to march to the State House and oust him. That was at the height of the June and July 2024 revolt against proposals to hike taxes. Ruto was the portrait of a solitary man, desperate for whatever support that could come. As Kenyans attacked from all directions, his then-deputy, Gachagua, dug in.
But the tide has changed. Ruto has Raila’s support, a spring in his step as he seeks re-election in 2027. As though following Sun Tzu’s counsel in The Art of War, the President seemingly wants to appear weak when he is strong.
The President is campaigning like his life depends on it. He is lobbying for support from all corners. On Monday, he resumes his campaigns in Mt Kenya, after completing legs in Nairobi, North Eastern, Western, Nyanza and Coast.
At the State House, he has met delegations of politicians from various regions. Yesterday, he met a delegation from Ukambani, having previously met politicians from Western and Mt Kenya.
Kaguchia played down Ruto’s campaigns, saying they were doing the President more harm than good.
“The campaigns are de-campaigning him more than they are selling him. He hires a rowdy crowd, which moves around with him, robbing Kenyans of their belongings,” said Kaguchia.
Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua argues that a strategic opposition could mount a serious campaign against Ruto.
“Potential presidential candidates must, however, demonstrate the killer instinct and capacity to crystallise public resentment against elite pacts coloured as national and public interests. While it is still early in the day, no presidential candidate has emerged who has the capacity to take President Ruto head on,” observed Mokua.
There is little doubt that the Head of State is in a stronger place. Indeed, bagging Raila, and potentially the opposition veteran’s endorsement, grants him access to most of the over two million votes in the former Nyanza Province.
In the last election, Raila bagged nearly 1.9 million votes from this bastion, the majority of which he could hand to Ruto. Such votes would plug whatever deficit Ruto incurs from the former Central Province, which handed the President 1.6 million votes in 2022.
There have been talks of having in place an alternative candidate, which has featured names like Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah, former Chief Justice David Maraga and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i.
