The rough road ahead for Bayo Ojulari, By Dan D. Kunle

By Wednesday, it will be one week since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu sent seismic shockwaves through Nigeria’s oil and gas industry with a decisive shake-up at the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd). The announcement triggered boardroom reshuffles and a clear-out at the top management level. The impact was immediate — and national. From Abuja to Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial nerve centre, stakeholders have been scrambling to recalibrate. Some welcomed the shake-up with cautious optimism. Others reacted with anxiety. All agree: the stakes are high.

For years, many of us in the industry have called for deep reform. NNPC Ltd. — a company that ought to be the heartbeat of the Nigerian economy — has instead become a cautionary tale. The corporation, once a symbol of state-led ambition, has long lost its competitive edge, weighed down by inefficiencies, overstaffing, opacity, and the dead hand of political interference. Tinubu’s move, though politically risky, signals a belated but necessary acknowledgement that the status quo has failed.

Let me begin by quoting the President’s directive to the new board:

“Restructuring is crucial for enhancing operational efficiency, restoring investor confidence, boosting local content, driving economic growth, and advancing gas commercialisation and diversification.”

This is a weighty mandate — and it reflects the true scale of the crisis. Alongside this charge, the President added another critical assignment:

“Conduct a strategic portfolio review of NNPC-operated and Joint Venture assets to ensure alignment with value maximisation objectives.”

These are not empty words. They reflect years of accumulated dysfunction and missed opportunities — failures that have brought Nigeria’s hydrocarbon sector to its knees. The President appears ready to let technocrats lead. Now, the question is whether the leadership of NNPC Ltd., under its new Group CEO Bashir Bayo Ojulari (BBO), can rise to the occasion.

The Long Decline

For more than a decade, Nigeria has underperformed in a world rapidly shifting its energy frontiers. While other nations discovered new reserves, developed integrated energy strategies, and adapted to the shale and renewables revolution, Nigeria stalled. Major international oil companies (IOCs), frustrated by insecurity, regulatory inconsistency, and policy flip-flops, began to divest. These are not just business decisions — they are loud warnings that the Nigerian energy environment is no longer attractive.

Oil production has dropped from over 2.6 million barrels per day in the 2000s to a current average of 1.7 million. Even this is unstable, vulnerable to theft, vandalism, pipeline sabotage, and community unrest. Natural gas production is also in sharp decline. Nigeria LNG’s six-train complex at Bonny Island — designed to deliver 22 million metric tonnes annually — now operates far below capacity due to inadequate gas feedstock. Investment has dried up across the board.

At the heart of this is a trust deficit. Host communities feel abandoned. Joint venture partners are disillusioned. Investors are sceptical. NNPC Ltd. has, for years, failed to meet its counterpart funding obligations. It has also failed to operate as a truly commercial entity, despite its transition into a limited liability company under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). The result? A sector in freefall.

BBO’s Inheritance

This is the terrain that BBO must now navigate. His appointment as Group CEO comes at a time of immense fragility, but also possibility. There is a window — brief and narrow — to reset the narrative. But make no mistake: the task is enormous.

First, BBO must rebuild confidence. This will not happen with speeches or photo-ops. It requires action. Trust must be re-established with internal staff, the board, the National Assembly, oil-producing communities, IOC partners, PSC managers, off-takers, and financiers. Each group is watching closely, and each expects something tangible.

Second, the upstream segment must be revived. NNPC E&P assets in Benin and other areas need urgent attention. Dormant fields must be activated. OML 11, long held up due to political and environmental issues, should become a symbol of a new approach — one built on transparency, negotiation, and execution. Likewise, valuable yet idle blocks like OPLs 245, 321, and 323 should be resolved. These Atlantic Basin blocks have the potential to reposition Nigeria’s oil future, if only the government and the regulator can break the legal logjam.

In addition to exploration and production, gas must be taken seriously. Nigeria’s gas reserves are among the largest in the world. Yet they remain underutilised. A comprehensive gas development strategy — focused on domestic use, industrialisation, and export — is overdue.

Don’t Compete with Private Capital

Just as the upstream needs revival, the midstream and downstream sectors demand a different approach. For too long, the federal government and NNPC have tried to control every link in the value chain. This must end. The midstream and downstream are now dominated by private players who have staked enormous capital — often borrowed at high interest rates — to build depots, pipelines, and filling stations. These investors should not be undercut by a state-funded competitor that operates without commercial discipline.

A truly reformed NNPC Ltd. must leave fuel importation, retail marketing, and depot operations to the private sector. Where the state is needed — such as in regulatory oversight, quality control, or strategic reserves—it should act with restraint and professionalism.

One success story stands out: the Dangote Refinery. At $20 billion, it is Africa’s largest industrial project and a powerful symbol of what private capital can achieve. NNPC Ltd. should collaborate with Dangote, not compete. Crude-for-products exchanges, equity swaps, and supply agreements could all be explored. This is the model for the future.

A House in Need of Repair

NNPC Ltd. itself is a sprawling, bureaucratic behemoth. Its corporate structure is bloated. Its operations are riddled with inefficiencies. Many of its subsidiaries are redundant. Internal accountability is weak. Digital transformation is long overdue. BBO must undertake a comprehensive audit of staffing, operations, and procurement practices. Streamlining is not just desirable — it is existential.

Reducing the cost of production is key. Nigeria’s oil currently costs over $30 per barrel to produce — among the highest in the world. This makes our crude uncompetitive, especially when benchmark prices are volatile. BBO must cut costs, eliminate waste, and standardise operations to global benchmarks.

Moreover, BBO’s leadership style will matter. He must be decisive, transparent, and professional. He must insulate the company from politics — no easy task in Nigeria — and let performance, not patronage, guide decision-making. If he succeeds, he will redefine what is possible in Nigerian state enterprise management.

The Clock Is Ticking

Time is a luxury BBO does not have. With the 2026 election cycle looming, attention will soon shift away from policy to politics. If reforms are not initiated quickly — within the next 12 to 18 months — they may never happen. Vested interests, both inside and outside government, will regroup and resist change.

This is why the President must not only appoint professionals — he must protect them. If BBO is to succeed, he needs political cover. He must be allowed to operate with independence. Meddling must end. Institutional sabotage must be punished.

A Test of National Will

As someone who has advised and studied this industry for more than 25 years, I have seen its peaks and its plunges. I know what is possible. But I also know what is likely, if courage fails. Nigeria is on the verge of energy irrelevance — not because we lack resources, but because we have squandered time.

We are sitting on ageing infrastructure built in the 1970s and 80s. Pipelines are leaking. Refineries are obsolete. Power plants lack gas. Meanwhile, the global energy conversation is shifting — towards decarbonisation, green hydrogen, and energy storage. We are being left behind.

If BBO and his team can arrest this decline — if they can restore credibility, efficiency, and commercial focus —  NNPC Ltd. will not just survive, it will lead. But if they fail, the cost will be monumental: lost revenue, lost jobs, lost national relevance.

This is not just about fixing a company. It is about rescuing a country.

Dan D. Kunle writes from Abuja, Nigeria.