Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets – September 8, 2024

Greetings and Welcome to another Sunday matinee. Does it seem almost like déjà vu to you? It does to me because today again finds the Reds having their last chance to corral a single victory in this series. Unlike last Sunday though, the Mets are the Reds opponent this week; and, the game is at 1:40 eastern time in Citi Park NYC.  Also, by the way, the Mets are riding a 9 game winning streak which has elevated them past Atlanta for the 3rd (and final) NL Wildcard spot.  Buckle up.

Lineups

Starting Pitchers 

Julian Aguiar

Julian Aguiar is listed as the Reds probable starter. Today’s game will mark his 5th MLB appearance and starting assignment. Most likely neither the Reds nor Aguiar in their wildest thoughts or dreams imagined him at MLB in 2024. But events happened and here we are.

While the 23 year old Aguiar looks to have MLB potential, the bottom line stats of his 4 prior MLB appearances is ugly. Nevertheless, the Reds as a team have won all 4 of Aguiar’s prior starts.

As the tables below outline, Aguiar has been hit hard, particularly so by left handed hitters. He does not have power pitcher credentials; and, his cause has not been helped by his lack of a strong put away strikeout pitch.  At  least with a BB rate under 8%, he is making the opponents put the ball into play.

In total, Aguiar looks like a work in progress.  Hopefully he will return to Class AAA in 2025  where he can pick up the interrupted process of  honing his craft to make his tools suffice as solid MLB pitcher.

Splits

Pitch Usage

Luis Severino

After lefthanded Mets starters in the first two games of the series, today the Reds face righty Luis Severino. Severino pitched with the Yankees starting in 2015, until crossing from the Bronx to Flushing Meadows in Queens to continue his career with the Mets this year.  Today marks his 28th start of the 2024 season and 153rd start of his MLB career. The Mets are 14-13 in Severino’s previous starts this year.

As he has aged, Severino has transitioned himself from a 4 seam fastball, slider, and change up pitcher (99% of his pitches) into a more diverse repertoire.  Most notably, he now also uses a sinker (25% of pitches) off his 4 seamer (35%) and mixes a cutter (9%)  in with his full slider (23%).

This year Severino’s handedness split is 52% left handed hitters faced and 48% right handed hitters. Despite this, lefties have hit over twice as many home runs against him. Paradoxically, righties have nearly twice as many doubles against him as  lefties. Overall, lefties hold sway across the board in the rate stats below, particularly in slugging on the strength of the skewed home run rate.

In his 5 most recent starts, Severino has pitched 30.2 innings. The Mets are 3-2 in those starts. Severino was the pitcher of record in all 5.

Splits

Pitch Usage

Bullpens

Reds

Jakob Junis went 5 innings as Saturday’s starting pitcher. Carson Spiers then threw 60 pitches finishing out the game following an ineffectual 12 pitch appearance by Sam Moll.  Count Junis and Spiers out for today. Everyone else should be available unless they are being held back for upcoming predetermined assignments due to the starting pitcher shortage.

Mets

Curiously Edwin Diaz pitched the 9th inning Saturday despite the Mets having a 4 run lead. He has appeared in consecutive games and thrown 28 pitches. One would think especially with the short overnight turnaround, he is at best doubtful for today. Otherwise the Mets should be in good shape with deep performances from their starters in  the first 2 games of this series.

When and Where

• Game time: 1:40pm ET
• Where: Citi Field New York City, NY
• Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
• Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
• Forecast: 67°, sunny, 

News and Notes

TJ Friedl went to the a hospital for tests after leaving Saturday’s game in the 7th inning with shortness of breath. The good news is the Reds say nothing “serious” was discovered in the tests. Friedl was discharged from the hospital after they were completed.

Cincinnati Reds center fielder TJ Friedl spent time at a New York hospital Saturday night for testing after experiencing shortness of breath. https://t.co/1JTz6Felzc

— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubMLB) September 8, 2024

The Reds announced a roster move this morning following Sam Moll’s abbreviated and ineffective stint last night.

The #Reds today recalled from Triple-A Louisville RHP Casey Legumina and placed on the 15-day injured list LHP Sam Moll (left shoulder impingement). pic.twitter.com/AAFE8lfkOq

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 8, 2024

Division Standings

This is just for old times sake, which beats saying “wait till next year” for the umpteenth time.

Play off odds courtesy of Fangraphs.