Benjamin Netanyahu is set to stay in power in Israel until elections due in 2026 and possibly longer, analysts and officials now believe, after a tumultuous week in which the 75-year-old veteran politician successfully fired his defence minister and was boosted by the results of the US election.
Netanyahu’s newly reinforced position could lead to further intensification of Israel’s campaign in Lebanon, and prolong the conflict in Gaza, critics fear – although the incoming US president Donald Trump has said he wants to swiftly end both wars.
Many observers have been surprised by the political resilience of Netanyahu, who is blamed by most Israelis for the failures that allowed Hamas to launch its bloody attacks into Israel last October, killing around 1,200 and taking more than 250 hostages.
“He never blinks. He has an internal compass and he follows that regardless of what is happening around him,” said Professor Tamar Hermann, senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute. “People are shouting and protesting but he does what he thinks is best. Critics say what is best for him. Admirers say what is best for the country.”
Many in Israel viewed Yoav Gallant, the ousted defence minister, as the sole moderate voice in the most rightwing government the country has ever had, but his dismissal last week prompted only limited protests.
Organisers blamed “the tense war atmosphere” in Israel for the low numbers on the streets. “People are afraid to leave their kids at home alone in case something happened,” one said.
Shortly after being fired, Gallant spoke at a private meeting to relatives of the 100 or so hostages who remain in Gaza or have died there.
Gil Dickmann, whose cousin was one of six hostages killed by Hamas in August, said the former defence minister had told the meeting that negotiators had come close to arranging a ceasefire earlier this summer when Hamas agreed to an exchange of Palestinian prisoners and the Israeli offensive had “done what needed to be done in Gaza”.
“The deal on the table in July would have got [my cousin] out but Netanyahu decided not to sign the deal … The main point is Netanyahu has got to put an end to this or we will never be able to forgive ourselves. Gallant told us Netanyahu is the only decison-maker regarding a deal,” Dickmann said. “It seems like Netanyahu will be in power until 2026 or even longer.”
On Friday, Gallant formally handed over to Israel Katz, the former foreign minister and a Netanyahu loyalist.
Ron Ben-Yishai, a commentator, wrote on the Ynet news website that Katz would wield little authority. “From now on Netanyahu is the final arbiter in tactical, systemic and strategic security matters … From now on we will have to get used to the fact that Netanyahu is not only the all-powerful prime minister – but also the defence minister,” Ben-Yishai said.
Polls in Israel show that Netanyahu, who regained power at the end of 2022 and has ruled for a total of 17 years, remains unpopular but his hardline policies resonate with many Jewish Israeli voters. Though their methodology has been questioned, recent surveys suggest Netanyahu’s party Likud would be the biggest winner if elections were held now.
Netanyahu’s coalition remains intact after a potential collapse over the issue of the conscription of Israel’s orthodox Jews was narrowly avoided. Netanyahu has also been helped by the successive killing in recent months by Israeli forces of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, and Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas. Political opposition remains divided and disorientated.
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“That Netanyahu can think about further terms says a lot about the inability of [the left] in Israel to get over relatively small disagreements to create a joint vision for the future, or at least an alternative vision,” said Hermann.
One weakness may be a brewing scandal that centres on aides of the prime minister accused of stealing and possibly falsifying secret intelligence documents before leaking them to the foreign media. Few expect the affair to seriously trouble Netanyahu, however.
Trump’s election provides a further boost. Netanyahu’s relations with Joe Biden and his administration were poor, despite the staunch support offered by Washington throughout the 13-month conflict in Gaza, where more than 43,500 have been killed. Trump’s first term in office produced a slew of initiatives welcomed by Israel’s right.
Elizabeth Pipko, a Republican party spokesperson, told Israel’s Channel 12 TV network on Wednesday that Trump wanted to see a swift and victorious end to Israel’s wars.
“Donald Trump always says he wants less innocent people to die – that is his stance whether we’re talking about the war in Gaza, whether we’re talking about Russia in Ukraine or anywhere else,” Pipko said.
“So I do believe he wants the war to end as soon as possible, like all rational people do, but he wants it to end with a decisive victory.”
