A ceasefire in the war in Gaza and a hostage release deal in exchange for Palestinians in Israeli jails began at 11.15am local time on Sunday (9.15am GMT).
The three-phrase agreement is designed to broker a permanent end to the war after 15 months of fighting that has killed nearly 47,000 Palestinians and led the international court of justice to consider genocide claims against Israel.
About 1,200 Israelis were killed in the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023, and another 250 taken hostage. One hundred were freed in exchange for 240 Palestinian women and children held in Israeli jails in a ceasefire deal in November 2023 that collapsed after a week.
What’s in the deal?
All fighting is to pause during the first 42-day phase. Israeli forces are to withdraw from Gaza’s cities to a “buffer zone” along the edge of the strip, displaced Palestinians will be able to return home and there will be a marked increase in aid deliveries.
In the second stage, of unclear duration, the remaining living hostages will be returned and a corresponding ratio of Palestinian prisoners freed, alongside a complete Israeli withdrawal from the strip. The Rafah crossing to Egypt will be opened for the sick and wounded to leave. It is unclear whether it will be returned to Palestinian control.
The third phase, which could last years, would address the exchange of bodies of deceased hostages and Hamas members, and a reconstruction plan for Gaza. Much of the international community has advocated for the semi-autonomous West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, which lost control of Gaza to Hamas in 2007, to return to the strip. Israel, however, has repeatedly rejected the suggestion.
How will stage one work?
A total of 33 hostages will be released over the next six weeks, in exchange for about 1,700 Palestinians held in Israel prisons, about 1,000 of whom are from Gaza and were arrested after 7 October 2023 under emergency legislation which allowed detention without charge or trial.
Three female captives – named by Hamas as Romi Gonen, Doron Steinbrecher and Emily Damari – will be freed first in exchange for about 95 Palestinians. A handful of Israelis will then be released every Sunday for the next six weeks; the number of Palestinians to be freed upon their return generally depends on whether the Israelis are civilians or soldiers. Some of the freed Palestinians from the West Bank sentenced for serious crimes against Israelis will be sent to third countries rather than be allowed to return home.
In Gaza, people displaced from their homes will be allowed to move freely around the Palestinian territory from day seven, and 600 trucks of aid will arrive each day to alleviate the strip’s dire humanitarian conditions. Supplies to Gaza are currently at an average of 18 truckloads a day; aid agencies say 500 a day is needed at a minimum.
What happens after that?
The transition from stage one to stage two of the deal, which should involve a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza other than a buffer zone, will be difficult; negotiations on how it will be implemented are scheduled to begin on day 16 (4 February).
Rafah, the strip’s border crossing to Egypt, is due to reopen by day 42. All wounded and sick civilians should be allowed to leave, along with 50 injured fighters a day, and Israel is supposed to completely withdraw from the Rafah area by no later than day 50 (9 March).
All other details remain hazy.
Why did it take so long to reach this agreement?
The deal is not significantly different from a draft proposed in May 2024 by Joe Biden, in which Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was credited as an author, and it was accepted by Hamas.
Netanyahu, afraid that implementing a deal would cause far-right elements of his coalition to quit, collapsing his government, later introduced what he called a “red line” – that Israel must retain a permanent presence on the Gaza-Egypt border.
The talks collapsed in July, and were revived in the lead-up to Donald Trump’s inauguration.
How likely is it that this will lead to a permanent ceasefire?
Since much of the details of stages two and three are yet to be worked out, it is feared that that there is a high chance the agreement may be derailed; any real or perceived violations by either side will take on magnified significance.
The collapse of the week-long ceasefire in November 2023 was reportedly because Hamas could not provide any more women or children hostages to exchange. It is possible this may happen again.
In addition, foreign diplomats have questioned Israel’s commitment to a withdrawal and permanent ceasefire, which would not achieve its stated war goal of completely destroying Hamas, amid pressure from Israel’s right-wing elements.
