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Boom or bust: NRL and AFL clubs gamble with their future amid player contract trend | NRL

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It usually takes a lot to move North Queensland Cowboys middle Jason Taumalolo, the 31-year-old forward who has made a remarkable living in almost 15 years as an NRL heavy. Sometimes, a few words are enough.

A Channel Nine reporter last week asked the hulking prop, seated for an interview ahead of round one, whether he could play on beyond this season. “Ah”, Taumalolo replied, leaning back with an awkward smile, before shifting his near-120kg frame left then right in obvious mental if not physical discomfort.

“Fingers crossed, at this stage, I can still see myself, but a lot can happen between now and then, and it’s not getting any easier too,” Taumalolo said.

Taumalolo missed round one due to off-season foot surgery and, after rarely skipping a match in his his early 20s, has had to deal with knee problems including cartilage degeneration. The concerns have restricted a man once considered the best forward in the game to not even 40 minutes per contest in 2024.

Yet under a 10-year deal struck in 2017, worth a reported $11m, the Tongan captain – whose decision to represent the Pacific nation helped revive the international game – is in line to earn like an elite first-grader for three more seasons.

The forward’s health, and – if he is forced into an early retirement long speculated – how his contract is treated by NRL integrity officials has taken on new significance this week. On Monday, Newcastle clinched the bold signing of Parramatta five-eighth Dylan Brown to their own 10-year deal – the richest contract in NRL history – as part of a growing trend across sport to lock down players for longer.

After the experience of Taumalolo, and a similar deal signed by Manly half-back Daly Cherry-Evans in 2015, NRL clubs had become shy about long-term deals. But Gold Coast captain Tino Fa’asuamaleaui signed a 10-year arrangement reportedly worth $12m in mid-2023, and Manly inked backrower Haumole Olakau’atu to an eight-year deal soon after.

Jason Taumalolo still has three years to run on a long-term deal to play in the NRL with North Queensland Cowboys. Photograph: Dan Himbrechts/AAP

Brown’s future Knights team-mate Kalyn Ponga is the game’s highest earner, on around $1.4m per year thanks to a five-year deal signed in 2022. Former coach of the Eels and Knights, Michael Hagan, told Triple M Newcastle the Knights’ offer had not over-valued Brown, a New Zealand international member of the losing 2022 grand final side.

“That’s the type of money the good players are now commanding,” Hagan said. “If you think about PNG and possibly a team in Perth coming into the competition in 2028, the market is only going to get harder and salaries are going to go up and up.”

Deals stretching beyond four or five years have traditionally been a rarity in sport. Sometimes that is a result of league rules, such as in the NBA. Sometimes it’s because of more uncertainty in volatile competitions or markets. But largely it has been due to a reluctance for clubs to gamble on a single player’s health and long-term development.

To even be considered worthy of such a deal, a budding star must have proven themselves at the highest level on and off the field over multiple years, leaving players with such decade-long arrangements squarely in the retirement zone of their mid-30s by the time deals conclude.

Despite the risks, long-term deals have become commonplace in the AFL, more than a decade after Lance Franklin’s nine-year contract with Sydney sent shockwaves through the league. 30 players are now signed to contracts that last to 2030 and beyond, including Fremantle’s Hayden Young – inked to 2033 – and Gold Coast’s Mac Andrew, who has a deal that could extend to 2034.

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AFL clubs have been drawn to maintain the values of players in a more mature trade market and avoid free agency departures. These deals will also insulate key players from the arrival of the new Tasmanian franchise in 2028. In the NFL and European football, contracts like Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Manchester City striker Erling Haaland are also getting longer.

A decade is a long time in sport, as club officials are well aware. Much like a politician budgeting a promise beyond the four years of forward estimates, signing a top player for too long is likely to be someone else’s problem.

While the players enjoy long-term security, such deals might not be in the best interests of a player, even if their full salary is guaranteed. Rugby league clubs regularly seek to move on from players whose contracts have proven unpalatable. Rules around medical retirements – where new injuries that force a player to quit the game earlier than expected lead to salary cap relief – can also create a dynamic where players are unsubtly steered into retirement. And one long-term deal means top players miss out on multiple auctions that accompany visits to free agency.

While the jury remains out on rugby league’s recent long-term signings like Fa’asuamaleaui and Olakau’atu, let alone Brown – which is still subject to the 10-day cooling off period – Taumalolo remains a much-loved figure in Townsville.

If he is forced to retire before the end of 2027, and the Cowboys are able to secure salary cap dispensation (as well as an insurance payout), the deal will be unqualified success despite a recent lack of silverware.

People still wary about the risks of the emerging urge to go long need only consider one thing: the man who concocted the Taumalolo deal, then-Cowboys general manager Peter Parr, now works at the Knights.



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