US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, April 9, walked back on his new tariffs that were widely expected to upset global trade leaving her trade partners like Kenya breathing a sigh of relief, although temporarily.
It remains unclear whether the taxes levied on goods getting into the US will return in the same form, or will be adjusted, at the end of the 90 day pause.
Dr. Alex Kamau, a business analyst, opines that Kenyan products destined for the US may be in greater demand due to low cost owing to lower tariffs they carry.
President Trump slapped Kenya with a ten percent tariff, a baseline rate imposed on countries with which the US has a fairly balanced trade.
Meanwhile, Madagascar was the hardest hit with a 47 percent against Mauritius’ 40 percent, 37 percent for Botswana while South African exports carry a 30 percent levy.
“We are doing okay. The trade between Kenya and the US is almost balanced as opposed to some countries which export more to the US than what they import, a fact that Trump wants to change,” said Dr Kamau on Spice FM.
Further, Dr Kamau says that the impact of the Trump tariffs will likely have more impact in the US than abroad including possibly raising inflation as importers pass the taxes to American buyers.
“When inflation hits the US it will be exported everywhere else,” warned Kamau.
“The high inflation may be met with high interest rates which can reduce consumer purchasing power potentially leading to a recession. Companies will reduce production volumes due to low demand,” he added.
Additionally, the consultant says that in the event the US is forced to hike interest rates, countries including Kenya will likely follow to make government securities competitive and attract investment.
An increase in global interest rates complicates President William Ruto’s push for lower interest rates that have recently been implemented by local banks.
However, the success of the tariffs is projected to trigger tax cuts for the American taxpayers, a pleasant development for President Trump ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
“Should Trump’s tariff regime succeed, Americans will pay less taxes as their domestic taxes will be replaced with revenue from other citizens of the world,” said Kamau adding, “it is the reverse of what the President of Kenya is pushing, which is more taxes.”
Ripple effect of Trump’s new tariffs
Dr. Alex Kamau Maina: Trump thinks the kind of revenue he’d collect from these tariffs could be used to give tax cuts to US citizens. It’s a good thing for the US; if it works, they pay less taxes. This is the reverse of what the President of… pic.twitter.com/VsenwzwPLa
— SpiceFM (@SpiceFMKE) April 14, 2025
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Trump taxes have coincided with the expiry of the America Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a trade pact that has allowed African countries to access the US market tariff-free since 2000.
Despite its significance in the US-Africa trade, President Trump has shown little interest in renewing the pact even as his tariffs come as hard tackles for many African economies which have not taken any retaliatory measures against the new tariffs.
“Many small countries have no financial muscle to debate with the US. Their best chance is to negotiate. Only countries like China can retaliate,” remarked Kamau.
